Model performance
Backtest of the current model (2026-07-03-drawdown-evap), last run 2026-07-03. Re-run on every model change and quarterly on new data.
| Metric | Value | Target | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm-peak error (during a rise) | -0.06 ft | −0.75 to +0.40 ft PASS | mean over 11 past floods >16 ft, scored on gauge-corrected radar (MRMS) + the live drainage path. On the deepest floods (≥17.5 ft) the older Daymet rain under-reads the storm and the model misses -1.04 ft; MRMS centers them at -0.17 ft |
| Recession tracking (after a rise) | 0.23 ft RMSE | < 0.45 ft PASS | was 0.94 ft when the outlet was held shut on the expected line |
| 2016 extreme-flood reconstruction | 21.9 ft Corps | 21–23 ft Corps PASS | marquee out-of-record check on gauge rain (~14.8 in) from the pre-storm drawdown base; 22.4 ft parish ≈ the reported 22.5 |
Ascent = how close the predicted flood peak is during a rise. Recession = how well the predicted level tracks the lake falling after a rise. 2016 = the out-of-record extreme-flood reconstruction.